Kristen Gyles | Don’t tempt Melissa

Why are so many residents of flood-prone communities so insistent that they will not leave their homes, even in the face of hurricanes and other life-threatening natural disasters? Despite providing the resources that are needed to help citizens relocate to shelters and other holding areas, the authorities seem to always have a hard time persuading citizens to get on the buses even at the onset of hurricane winds and rains.

Hopefully, this time around, with Tropical Storm Melissa threatening to strengthen into a hurricane, people will know not to play hero and will seek shelter before it’s too late. But why is it so hard for so many people to make the safe decision? It’s not just stubbornness, but it sure can come across that way.

It’s not strange for some Jamaicans to underestimate risk and overestimate resilience due to optimism bias. After all, some Jamaicans take ‘likkle but Tallawah’ to mean that as Jamaicans we are invincible. Optimism bias is the human tendency to believe that misfortunes are not very likely to materialise or that even if they do, one possesses the skill, intelligence and perhaps just sheer luck to navigate them successfully. Furthermore, citizens who have weathered previous storms without significant harm or loss of property are somewhat likely to assume that they can do it again. They are just that good.

Some still reason that if they could have made it through Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, they can without a doubt, make it through any other hurricane.

To be fair though, the decision to abandon one’s home, furniture and other possessions in a hurricane can never be an easy one. Some people have such strong attachment to their possessions that leaving them to the mercy of the elements in a destructive hurricane is severely nerve-racking. Furthermore, evacuation involves abandoning a place of familiarity and comfort for an uncertain experience in a shared facility.

Last year, in the hours leading up to Hurricane Beryl, the Mayor of Kingston had a conversation with one 70-year-old woman, who refused to evacuate her home in Port Royal. She lived with her 93-year-old mother. When urged to get on the evacuation bus, she cheekily asked whether she and her mother were being taken to a five-star hotel. When told they would be taken to the National Arena, her response was that her mother could not manage those conditions.

Her response is not hard to relate to. Nobody really wants to leave their home to sleep at the National Arena – that is, until their roof gets torn off and rainwater starts pouring in on them or they find themselves standing in knee-deep floodwater. And by that time, it’s usually too late.

SOCIAL PRESSURE

Group think and social pressure also play a role in the decisions people make in these critical moments. People look to those around them for cues about what to do. If others decide to ‘ride out the storm’, that collective choice creates a sense of reassurance and normalcy. People want to feel as though they are acting in unison with their family members, friends and neighbours. In tightly-knit communities especially, there can be a subtle social pressure to stay since leaving might be perceived as panicking or abandoning family and other loved ones.

Demographics also matter. We’ve all heard by now that women tend to outlive men. The reason for this might be that while men find fun and adventure in doing things like swinging from tree limb to tree limb like Tarzan during mango season, the average woman takes interest in more mild-mannered activities that usually pose little to no risk to personal safety. Well, studies have found that men are generally more likely to show optimism bias and might not want to leave their homes in times of disaster. This might be a response stemming from social expectations for men to be tough and self-reliant. On the other hand, women – especially those who are responsible for children or ageing parents – tend to be more sensitive to the risks and might be more inclined to evacuate when faced with the threat of a storm or hurricane.

The older you are, the more hurricanes you are likely to have lived through. So again, older adults are likely to misjudge the risk of life-threatening damage during a hurricane, since they falsely assume that having survived earlier hurricanes with minimal damage, they are likely to endure future ones as well.

What can we do about these ingrained biases that keep people stuck in high-risk situations at the absolute worst times? Communication is critical. The use of some technical phrases do not necessarily impart the level of urgency that is likely to spur a layman into action. Telling citizens that a ‘Category 3 storm’ is heading towards the island, for example, does not necessarily communicate the potential for life-threatening flooding and wind. In fact, people are perhaps more likely to compare this Category 3 hurricane with that other Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane that they fared through years ago. On the other hand, telling someone living in an unstable housing arrangement that their roof is likely to blow off or that their house will probably be flooded out is more likely to create a sense of urgency.

Also, some residents are sceptical of the media and government agencies but will listen to trusted voices such as community leaders or pastors. Public-private partnerships are therefore crucial in getting the right messages across.

Besides that, the authorities can only keep providing support, both in relation to transportation and shelter, for those who do choose to evacuate. There is not much more that they can do. After all, people have the choice to take risks, even with their lives. And unfortunately, people don’t always make that choice wisely.

Kristen Gyles is a free-thinking public affairs opinionator. Send feedback to kristengyles@gmail.com and columns@gleanerjm.com